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IFRS 9 and credit risk
How is expected credit loss built, governed and kept honest through the cycle? ECL transparency, forward-looking macro scenarios for the GCC, underwriting and early warning, restructuring under IFRS 9, and the concentration risks that drive staging in practice.
7 articles in this topic
Read in this order.
- 11 May 2026 Beyond the black box — what IFRS 9 ECL transparency actually requires Nearly a decade into IFRS 9 production, early implementations have aged into vendor lock-in. What transparency actually requires under IFRS 9 and CBUAE MMS, where it breaks down, and what an auditable ECL model should let an institution do.
- 16 May 2026 Beyond oil — calibrating forward-looking IFRS 9 scenarios for the GCC Generic global scenarios were never right for GCC ECL models, yet remain in production at many institutions. What IFRS 9 requires for forward-looking calibration, why off-the-shelf scenarios understate regional cyclicality, and what defends in supervisory review.
- 16 Jun 2026 Credit underwriting at the growth-quality frontier Loan growth and asset quality are not in fundamental tension. What is in tension is growth velocity and origination discipline. What data-driven underwriting looks like in practice, how early warning systems should connect to IFRS 9 staging, and where the binding constraint sits.
- 6 Aug 2026 SME early warning indicators — the move from past-due to behavioural Days-past-due is lagging by definition. By the time it triggers, deterioration has typically been visible in transactional data for weeks or months. BCBS 2025 credit risk principles reinforce the supervisory expectation that EWI frameworks incorporate behavioural indicators.
- 3 Sept 2026 Commercial real estate concentrations — the supervisory question beneath the LTV LTV at origination addresses one dimension of CRE risk. Sector concentration, master-developer dependency, and rental-yield sensitivity address several others. The frameworks that survive supervisory dialogue have moved well beyond origination-time metrics.
- 20 Aug 2026 Portfolio de-risking in shifting credit cycles — beyond the rear-view mirror Conventional credit metrics are backward-looking by design. Effective de-risking requires acting on leading indicators of cycle shift, recalibrating limits dynamically, and tightening origination at segment level before realised losses arrive.
- 17 Sept 2026 Corporate restructuring and remediation — beyond the tenor extension When a corporate exposure enters distress, the reflex is tenor extension. The deeper question — whether the restructuring is sustainable or merely defers a credit event — is one IFRS 9, audit, and supervisory dialogue increasingly press hard.
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